In un-gerrymandered Buncombe, will district lines doom GOP commissioner candidates?

ASHEVILLE - Newly drawn election maps created as the result of a North Carolina gerrymandering battle have changed the makeup of Buncombe County's Board of Commissioner districts, creating ones with party affiliation breakdowns that more closely resemble those of the county as a whole.

In a place where Republicans comprise less than a quarter of registered voters, national political expert Mike Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College, said he wouldn't be surprised to see Democrats sweep the local elections in 2020.

“I think there’s going to be a pretty significant hill to climb (for the GOP), now that Asheville is spread out more amongst all the districts rather than concentrated or packed into one district with those registered Democrats,” he said.

Democrats hope this will be the case. Buncombe officials from the party call the new maps more fair, though acknowledge nothing is set in stone.

Commissioner elections 2020: Who is running and where?

With the latter assessment, Buncombe Republicans agree. But local GOP officials were hesitant to comment on the quality of the new maps. They acknowledged a challenge before them, but said the GOP still has a fighting chance in November.

'As competitive for Republicans as possible'

On Sept. 3, a three-judge panel ruled that several clusters of North Carolina's General Assembly districts were extreme partisan gerrymanders by Republicans. 

In their judgment, the judges specifically called out the Buncombe County House districts grouping, saying the mapmaker packed Democratic voters "in and around Asheville into House District 114, in an effort to make House Districts 115 and 116 as competitive for Republicans as possible."

In Buncombe, board of commissioner districts follow the same lines as the county's three House seats. They've done so since the passage of 2011 legislation led by then-state Rep. Tim Moffitt, a Republican who lived in the county at the time.

Bitzer compiled data from Jan. 5, 2019, to determine how countywide affiliations compared to those of each district. At the time, he found, Buncombe County was about 38% Democrat, 37% unaffiliated, 23% Republican and 1% other party affiliations.

Meanwhile, in commissioner districts, numbers varied. The board's District 1 — which aligned with House District 114 and encompassed most of Asheville — broke down to:

• 48% Democrat
• 39% Unaffiliated
• 13% Republican
• 1% Other

District 2, aligning with House District 115, was:

• 35% Democrat
• 36% Unaffiliated
• 28% Republican
• 1% Other.

District 3, aligning with House District 116, was:

• 32% Democrat
• 37% Unaffiliated
• 30% Republican
• 1% Other

'More like the county as a whole'

Following the panel's ruling, however, the GOP redrew North Carolina's maps. On Oct. 28, the judges approved the new lines, which place many Buncombe voters in new districts for 2020 — and a few commissioner candidates too.

More on 2020 Buncombe elections:

• What do Buncombe's new district lines mean for 2020 commissioner elections
• Who is running for office in Asheville, Buncombe, other parts of WNC?
• It's official: Asheville, Buncombe won't be split by gerrymandered congressional districts

Affiliation breakdowns for the new districts — all three of which now include a portion of Asheville — are similar to countywide numbers. As of Dec. 28, those broke down to 38% Democrat, 38% unaffiliated, 23% Republican and 1% other parties.

Based on Bitzer's data, the newly redrawn District 1 is:

• 39% Unaffiliated
• 38% Democrat
• 23% Republican
• 1% Other.

District 2 is:

• 39% Democrat
• 38% unaffiliated
• 23% Republican
• 1% other.

District 3 is:

• 41% Democrat
• 40% unaffiliated
• 17% Republican
• 1% other

“The districts are more like the county as a whole and, based on how particularly unaffiliateds will vote, probably are better representation,” Bitzer said.

Dems: New districts are 'fairly drawn'

Many Democrats are hoping the new maps will give them a leg up in the general election. Jeff Rose, chairman of the Buncombe party, said he's glad to see the districts "fairly drawn" after having ones "that were drawn to elect Republicans" since the last redistricting.

"Folks who drew the lines where hoping it would create a Republican majority on county commission and, through a lot of hard work by folks to get more Democrats elected, we've had a slim Democratic majority on county commission and in a county that is not a slim Democratic county," said Rose.

Board Chairman Brownie Newman, an Asheville Democrat, said none of the new districts is overwhelmingly Democratic, but that "there are opportunities for additional Democrats to be elected to the board." He said the new maps accurately represent the county's demographics.

"Each district includes some parts of Asheville as well as rural communities in the county," said Newman. "I think it is healthy that all commissioners will need to keep in mind the interests of people living in the city and the rural communities in our county, rather than just one or the other."

Commissioner Jasmine Beach-Ferrara, an Asheville Democrat representing District 1, called the new districts are a step in the right direction, but said North Carolina needs independent redistricting "to ensure fair districts in every election cycle."

The new maps move Beach-Ferrara into District 2, where she is running for reelection in 2020. She said she knows better than to make predictions about election outcomes, but that when she asks people — in all areas of Buncombe — what matters to them, they bring up issues Democrats are focused on in 2020. These include early childhood education, strong public schools, good jobs, affordable housing and public transit options.

Oakland Forest Democratic Commissioner Al Whitesides, who represents District 1, said the new maps are "a better representation over all from the county." 

“Let’s face it, we live on a blue island (in Western North Carolina)," he said. "When you look at Buncombe County, I would say I would think it would favor the Democratic candidates, but you never know. The key is put forth good candidates who represent the people of Buncombe County.”

GOP: No sense 'grumbling' about maps

On the Republican side, Commissioner Mike Fryar, of Fairview, said the new maps create an advantage for Democrats "big time," but he — along with many other Republicans — was hesitant to predict how they might impact the board elections.

Fryar is running for reelection in District 2 in 2020. The way the districts are now, he said, "it’s going to be tough any way you look at it.”

Buncombe GOP Chairman Jerry Green said he doesn't see any sense in making predictions or "grumbling" about the new districts.

"We know whatever's set up, we have to abide by and we will, and we'll do our best as Republicans to try to win," he said.

Candler Republican Commissioner Joe Belcher, who is running for reelection in District 3, said the new districts may force some commissioner candidates to “realign their thinking” as they campaign for a different set of constituents than those who originally elected them.

Asked if he thought the board’s current makeup accurately represents Buncombe’s population, Belcher said he doesn’t.

“If it was accurate, you’d have two independents, two Republicans and two Democrats,” he said.

But he doesn't think the new districts will impact the ease with which any particular party might win in 2020.

“Elections are determined by the people that run and the people that vote,” he said. “You can have people mess with the lines, but I’m still encouraged that the people in Buncombe County are going to vote to have the proper representation on the board.”

Numbers 'pretty favorable to Democrats'

Based on the data, Bitzer said he expects Buncombe to see a predominantly Democratic victory in November.

“Doesn’t mean a Republican can’t win," he added. "It’s just that the numbers are pretty favorable to Democrats.”

Not all registered voters are going to show up for elections, he said, and those registered as unaffiliated are the least likely to do so. But these days, those who register with a specific party are mostly like going to vote for the party's candidate, he said.

“You’re getting the true believers, the true party faithful to register with the parties," said Bitzer. "The unaffiliated, younger voters, they like their options. They like choices. They don’t want to be labeled with a party label. That’s why I think they tend to go unaffiliated.”

In the last year, those registered as unaffiliated gained a slight majority in Buncombe, but Bitzer said that doesn’t necessarily make the upcoming elections less predictable.

“I would think that in Buncombe County, and particularly Asheville, those are definitely center-left voters,” he said. “The state as a whole tends to be center-right. But what we’ve seen in urban North Carolina are the cities, the major urban cities, are moving more and more Democratic.”

The real question in North Carolina is not how the younger constituents will vote but whether they will at all. Bitzer said millennials — those born 1981-96, according to Pew Research Center definitions — have had the lowest voter turnout of all generations.

“Right now, anybody under the age of 40s make up a plurality of all the voters in the state, but they don’t show up," he said. "Is this the year where, what I describe as kind of the tectonic shift occurs, that these younger voters punch up to their political weight?”

It could be, he said. Millennials hit high marks in the 2018 midterms and Bitzer expects greater turnouts overall for the 2020 general election. He said polls are indicating that voter interest and enthusiasm now is already comparable to what is typically seen in August or September of an election year. And there are still 11 months to go.

"It’s going to be intense," he said.

A breakdown of party affiliation in Buncombe

As of Dec. 29, data provided by the county Board of Election showed 193,258 registered voters in Buncombe, made up of 74,034 who are unaffiliated with any political party, 73,164 Democrats, 44,312 Republicans and 1,524 Libertarians. 

The registration breakdown of each district breaks down to:

District 1

• Total registered voters: 63,605
• Democrats: 24,076
• Republicans: 14,446
• Unaffiliated: 24,498
• Libertarians: 505

District 2

• Total registered voters: 62,460
• Democrats: 24,354
• Republicans: 14,078
• Unaffiliated: 23,491
• Libertarians: 477

District 3

• Total registered voters: 66,882
• Democrats: 24,605
• Republicans: 15,734
• Unaffiliated: 25,921
• Libertarians: 538

Voters not assigned to a jurisdiction

• Total registered voters: 311
• Democrats: 129
• Republicans: 54
• Unaffiliated: 124
• Libertarians: 4

Buncombe elections specialist Jennifer Sparks said the registered voters in the latter category do not have a valid address and cannot be assigned to a district. These  voters will be able to cast a ballot once they update their addresses.