Asheville, WNC could lose millions in funding if we flub the 2020 Census
ASHEVILLE - The census is your RSVP to the next decade. It’s how the government gets a head count for the party — how many plates to make, how many seats to set out, and how to divvy up $675 billion in federal funding over 10 years.
Despite the dawn of the digital age, the nation's 23rd census promises to be one of its most challenging. Widespread misinformation and disinformation about the content of Census 2020 have fueled an atmosphere of fear in immigrant communities, and punishing budget cuts may cripple the Census Bureau's work before the first door is knocked.
The stakes are already high for Buncombe County, where an influx of 20,000 new residents over the past decade has left infrastructure strained. But the difficulty of an accurate count will be compounded by a dearth of job seekers and untested new technology. It's all hands on deck.
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"The best way for people to see the impact of the census is to have a bad census," Chuck Megown, the Census Bureau's partnership representative for Buncombe and Haywood counties, said during a presentation on Latino census engagement on Nov. 6.
You'll notice the shortages.
What is a census?
The sixth sentence of the Constitution mandates an "enumeration" of the residents of the United States every 10 years. The information collected on the census has shifted considerably over the decades, but fundamentally the goal is to "count everyone once, only once, and in the right place," as well as gather important demographic information like age, race and the relationships within each household.
Personally identifying information — like your address, and the names and ages of your children — is kept confidential for 72 years, after which it becomes the stuff of public records and Ancestry.com. But it's not just a toy for genealogists.
According to Bob Coats, a demographics and economics analyst for the state and Gov. Roy Cooper's census liaison, the census dictates two things: "money and power."
Several forms of federal funding (among them schools and roads) are based on census population data. According to a George Washington University study, the census ultimately allocates $1,623 in federal funding per person, per year for a decade.
Undercount by 900 people — a paltry 1% of Asheville's 2010 population — and that's $14.7 million down the drain. "That's not new dollars," Coats added. "That's taxes you've already paid. In order to bring those dollars home," you have to be counted.
The census also decides each state's share of congressional seats, Electoral College votes and local-level district lines. North Carolina is poised to gain at least one seat in the House of Representatives, Coats said — "two if we do a really good job." And as a key swing state, even subtle shifts in N.C. districts could have an outsize impact on national politics.
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"Whether you like it or not, (the census) is coming soon and it's going to impact your community," Coats said. "Whether it's going to impact your community for good or for bad, that's in your hands."
How does the census work?
The Census Bureau will start mailing postcard "invitations" to participate in the census in mid-March, according to Megown. For the first time, you'll be able to complete the census by phone or online as well as via snail mail — and in 13 languages.
Despite President Donald Trump's statements that census workers will "ask how many toilets" you have, the 2020 census will only ask basic demographic questions and whether you own or rent your home.
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Base all your answers on your household's status on April 1, Census Day. If your kid turns eight on April 3, she's seven on the census. If great-aunt Suzy died at 12:01 a.m. April 2, mark her as a household member on the census.
Historically, a strong majority of people complete the census when that first round of mailers goes out. Buncombe County had an initial response rate of 76% in Census 2010 — its highest ever — according to Megown.
That's slightly above the projected 70% of households the Census Bureau expects to respond nationwide, as per a report released in January. Census veterans say it's that last 20% — and in particular the last 2-3% — that get expensive. They need people on the ground.
A look at census jobs and door-knockers
When you think of a census worker, clipboard in hand, smiling at you through your peephole, you’re thinking of an enumerator. They’re the census foot soldiers who make contact with everyone who didn’t respond to census invitations, and they'll be pounding the local pavement June and July 2020.
It's a sworn office: All census employees swear a lifetime oath to protect respondent data, on penalty of a felony charge that carries up to five years' imprisonment and a $250,000 fine.
The U.S. Census Bureau plans to hire 500,000 enumerators over the next year. Census officials in Western North Carolina have been tasked with the lofty goal of recruiting 19,430 WNC applicants — yes, about a Hendersonville-and-a-half — to become enumerators.
But a strong job market will make the work of recruiters like Census Bureau veteran Ed Horton an uphill battle. Buncombe County has the lowest unemployment in the state at 2.6%, according to the NC Department of Commerce's October report, and Haywood and Henderson counties tied for second-lowest at 2.9%.
In an effort to expand the pool of potential applicants, the Census Bureau announced in October that green card holders who speak fluent English will also be considered, particularly if their language skills will be helpful in the community.
Of the 19,000 WNC applicants Horton and Megown are hoping to see, only about 2,000 will make it off the bench. Some will be winnowed out by the thorough independent background review (complete with an FBI fingerprint check).
Offers will start going out in early spring, but a steady trickle of new hires could continue through July.
The pay for enumerators will be $12-14 an hour in Buncombe County and schedules are flexible — most work occurs on weekends and the afternoons when people are likely to be at home, so it makes for a good side hustle.
There's a high rate of turnover, Megown said, because many prospective enumerators find their situations have changed in the months since they applied or find full-time employment. But because the application process takes months from start to finish, it's too late to start the hiring process if Horton has a door-knocker quit in June because she breaks a leg or wins the lottery. That's why they need that deep reservoir of pre-screened applicants.
Like a summer shower, the tenure of a census enumerator can stop as suddenly and unexpectedly as it began.
"Most positions are anticipated to last several weeks, but employment may end at any time or hours of work may be reduced if there a lack of available work," according to the census website.
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But there should be plenty of work, if the field trials are any indication.
In 2016, the Census Bureau selected Buncombe County as one of two sites nationwide for groundtruth testing of a new address canvassing system.
Because of the area's tremendous growth over the last decade, the Census 2010 maps had only a fraction of the existing households on the books. That's a problem, Coats explained, because the census looks for dwellings, not people.
It's not "where's John at, let's send (a census invitation) to where John is," Coats said. "We identify addresses where someone might live."
The Census Bureau's ROAM tool shows which census tracts are most likely to have low response rates. People living in bluer tracts are less likely to respond to initial census invitations.
And that's a challenge in places like Buncombe County, with virtually every type of housing represented — and their stumbling blocks.
We've got single-family dwellings that contain multiple households (looking at you, West Asheville twenty somethings with four roommates) and remote mountain cabins down dirt roads you could mistake for a game trail.
We've got an outsized percentage of renters, who census data indicates are less likely to respond. And with nearly one in five Buncombe County residents over 65, census workers worry non digital natives will struggle with the online census.
Census misinformation abounds about citizenship question
Appalachians have a storied history of skepticism of federal door-knockers (IRS agents were often greeted with shotguns in the 1900s). But worries about how census information could be used by the federal government are palpable in immigrant communities.
Buncombe County has robust populations of Ukrainian and Latino immigrants — some documented, some undocumented. Agustin Velasquez, Latino partnership specialist for the North Carolina field division of the U.S. Census Bureau, said he believes early announcements about a citizenship question might have done irreversible damage.
According to Juliana Cabrales of National Association of Latino Elected Officials, polling data suggest that most people don't remember the final verdict on a citizenship question — the Supreme Court blocked the addition on June 27, and the Trump administration gave up the effort on July 11.
"Don't assume they know," Cabrales said. "Acknowledge their fears ... but (assure them) data is confidential for 72 years" and reiterate as often as possible that there will be no citizenship question.
The Census Bureau is required by law to report the results of the census to the president by Jan. 1 of the following year. But that data is aggregate-only, with any personally identifying information stripped away.
"We don't work with people, we work with numbers," census partnership specialist Maria Quintero said.
Funding woes in North Carolina
With so much to lose in an undercount, many states and cities have determined using local money to raise awareness of the census is an investment with a guaranteed return.
California has allocated a staggering $187 million to help shore up thin federal funding. It tops the list of 22 states that have earmarked money for programs such as radio advertising campaigns explaining the benefits of the system and mailers to send home with schoolchildren. North Carolina, meanwhile, has allocated zero dollars.
North Carolina legislators have proposed funding for the census in the last two sessions — including the current budget gridlock — but both proposals failed.
"There were a lot of things" that didn't get funded this fiscal year, said state Rep. Brian Turner, a Buncombe County Democrat who wasn't involved in a push for state census spending. "Unfortunately this was one of those. Hopefully this is something that could be readdressed in the spring session."
Complete Count Committees rely on local leaders to raise census awareness
The Census Bureau will be leaning on outreach by community volunteers to help extend its message to hard-to-count groups.
Local government and community leaders are urged to form Complete Count Committees composed of diverse stakeholders, including prominent figures from local business, health care, faith-based groups and other community organizations.
"These trusted voices develop and implement a 2020 Census awareness campaign based upon their knowledge of the local community to encourage a response," according to the Census Bureau website.
Buncombe County's Complete Count Committee is working to recruit partners in every sphere of local life. The business subcommittee, led by Asheville Area Chamber of Commerce's Samantha Cole, is courting major employers and leaders of business associations to get the word out among their staffs, while a bevy of church representatives brainstorm what messaging would be most convincing to their congregations.
Other subcommittees in Buncombe County's CCC target the homeless, veterans, students and unincorporated communities. But the Census Bureau's hope is that even more granular Complete Count Committees — say, on the level of neighborhoods — would create areas with 100% participation.
"You know your community better than the census workers," Velasquez said. "Gather the folks in your community and start engaging them to participate in the census."
To find a Complete Count Community near you, or to start your own, visit 2020census.gov.